Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in January

by Bill McBride on 3/27/2012 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January (a 3 month average of November, December and January).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data.

From S&P:
2012 Home Prices Off to a Rocky Start According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indice

Data through January 2012, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... showed annual declines of 3.9% and 3.8% for the 10- and 20-City Composites, respectively. Both composites saw price declines of 0.8% in the month of January. Sixteen of 19 MSAs also saw home prices decrease over the month; only Miami, Phoenix and Washington DC home prices went up versus December 2011. (Due to delays in data reporting, the January 2012 index values for Charlotte are not included in this month’s release).

“Despite some positive economic signs, home prices continued to drop. The 10- and 20- City Composites and eight cities – Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa – made new lows,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Detroit and Phoenix, two cities that have suffered massive price declines, plus Denver, saw increasing prices versus January 2011. The 10-City Composite was down 3.9% and the 20-City was down 3.8% compared to January 2011.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 34.2% from the peak, and down 0.1% in January (SA). The Composite 10 is at a new post bubble low (both Seasonally adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted).

The Composite 20 index is off 33.9% from the peak, and unchanged in January (SA) from December. The Composite 20 is also at a new post-bubble low.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is down 3.8% compared to January 2011.

The Composite 20 SA is down 3.8% compared to January 2011. This was a slightly smaller year-over-year decline for both indexes than in December.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA) in 9 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in January seasonally adjusted (only 3 cities increased NSA). Prices in Las Vegas are off 61.8% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 8.6% from the peak. There was no data for Charlotte in January.

Both the SA and NSA are at new post-bubble lows - and the NSA indexes will continue to decline for the next couple of months (this report was for the three months ending in January). I'll have more on prices later.

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