Wednesday, February 15, 2012

NAHB Builder Confidence index increases in February; Highest in over four years

by Bill McBride on 2/15/2012 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports the housing market index (HMI) increased in February to 29 from 25 in January. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Increases for Fifth Consecutive Month in February

Home builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes increased for the fifth consecutive month in February, rising from 25 to 29 on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. It is the highest level the index has reached in more than four years.
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“This is the longest period of sustained improvement we have seen in the HMI since 2007, which is encouraging,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, it is important to remember that the HMI is still very low, and several factors continue to constrain the market. Foreclosures are still competing with new home sales, and many builders are seeing appraisals come in at less than the cost of construction. Additionally, prospective home buyers are finding it difficult to qualify for a mortgage.”
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Each of the HMI’s three components also improved for a fifth consecutive month in February. The component measuring traffic of prospective buyers rose from 21 to 22, and the component measuring sales expectations for the next six months increased from 29 to 34. The component measuring current sales rose from 25 to 30.
HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the February release for the HMI and the December data for starts (January housing starts will be released tomorrow).

Both confidence and housing starts had been moving sideways at a very depressed level for several years - but confidence has been moving up recently, and it appears starst are increasing a little too.

This is still very low, but this is the highest level since May 2007.

Housing Investment and Construction

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