Monday, February 27, 2012

Consensus Housing Forecast for 2012: 700,000 starts

by Bill McBride on 2/27/2012 08:55:00 AM

I guess we can call this the "consensus" forecast for housing starts, from the NABE: NABE Outlook February 2012

Housing starts are expected to increase 19 percent in 2012. The economists surveyed expect housing starts to reach 700,000 units in 2012, up from 610,000 in 2011 and an upward revision from the November forecast. The forecast for 2013 shows continued improvement, with housing starts reaching 850,000 units. Correspondingly, real residential investment is forecast to increase 6.6 percent in 2012, slightly higher than the 4.3 percent predicted in November, and then strengthen further, rising 10 percent in 2013. The projection for home prices in 2012 was lowered slightly from a projected increase in the FHFA index of 0.9 percent (Q4/Q4) in the November survey to home prices remaining unchanged in the February survey. In 2013 home prices are expected to increase slightly more than 2 percent.
Here was housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast for 2012.

The following table shows several forecasts for 2012:

Some Housing Forecasts for 2012 (000s)
New Home SalesSingle Family StartsTotal Starts
Consensus (NABE)700
Merrill Lynch330713
Fannie Mae336473704
Wells Fargo350457690
John Burns359 717
NAHB360501709
Tom Lawler365515740
Moody's530687
2011 Actual304431609

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