Friday, December 23, 2011

Personal Income increased 0.1% in November, Spending increased 0.1%

by Bill McBride on 12/23/2011 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:

Personal income increased $8.5 billion, or 0.1 percent ... in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $13.1 billion, or 0.1 percent in November.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in November ... The price index for PCE decreased less than 0.1 percent in November, compared with a decrease of 0.1 percent in October. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in November
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Click on graph for larger image.

PCE increased 0.1% in November, and real PCE increased 0.2%.

Note: The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent.

The personal saving rate was at 3.5% in November.

Both personal income and spending were lower than expectations. Using the "two month" method to forecast real Q4 PCE growth suggests an increase of about 2.9% in Q4 - the strongest quarter this year.

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