Saturday, November 12, 2011

Schedule for Week of Nov 13th

by Bill McBride on 11/12/2011 01:15:00 PM

Earlier:
Summary for Week Ending Nov 11th

Two key housing reports will be released this week: November homebuilder confidence on Wednesday, and October housing starts on Thursday.

For manufacturing, the November NY Fed (Empire state) survey will be released on Tuesday, the November Philly Fed survey on Thursday, and the September Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report on Wednesday.

On prices, the October Producer Price index (PPI) will be released Tuesday, and CPI will be released on Wednesday.

Several regional Fed presidents will be speaking this week: Chicago's Evans, St Louis' Bullard, San Francisco's Williams, and Dallas' Fischer all speak on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Richmond's Lacker and Boston's Rosengren, and on Thursday Cleveland's Pianalto and New York's Dudley.

----- Monday, Nov 14th -----

No releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, Nov 15th -----

8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for October. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in producer prices (0.1% increase in core).

8:30 AM ET: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of -2.6, up from -8.48 in October (below zero is contraction).

8:30 AM: Retail Sales for October. After a strong September, the consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.2% in October, and for no change ex-auto.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories.

----- Wednesday, Nov 16th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been especially weak since early August, although this doesn't include cash buyers.

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for October. The consensus is for no change in prices. The consensus for core CPI is an increase of 0.1%.

9:15 AM ET: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production in October, and an increase to 77.6% (from 77.4%) for Capacity Utilization.

10 AM ET: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 16, down from 18 in October. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This index has been below 25 for four years.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, Nov 17th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a slight increase to 395,000 from 390,000 last week. The 4-week average has declined recently to 400,000.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for October. After collapsing following the housing bubble, housing starts have mostly been moving sideways for almost three years. The consensus is for a decrease to 605,000 (SAAR) from 658,000 (SAAR) in September.

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 9.0 (above zero indicates expansion, up slightly from 8.7 last month.


10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 3rd Quarter 2011 National Delinquency Survey (NDS). The following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due for Q2. The MBA reported 8.44% of mortgage loans were delinquent at the end of Q2, seasonally adjusted, and another 4.43% were in the foreclosure process (total of 12.87%, essentially unchanged from Q1).

MBA Delinquency by PeriodClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due in Q2. Based on other data, the delinquency rate probably decreased slightly in Q3.

However the key problem is the large number of seriously delinquent loans (90+ days and in the foreclosure process). And there probably was little change in those percentages in Q3.

----- Friday, Nov 18th -----

10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for October. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in this index.