by Bill McBride on 11/15/2011 08:30:00 AM
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.5% from September to October (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 7.9% from October 2010. From the Census Bureau report:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $397.7 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 7.2 percent (±0.7%) above October 2010. Total sales for the August through October 2011 period were up 7.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2011 percent change was unrevised from +1.1 percent (±0.3%).Retail sales excluding autos increased 0.6% in October. Sales for September were unrevised with a 1.1% increase.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
Retail sales are up 19.5% from the bottom, and now 5.1% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.
Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.0% on a YoY basis (7.2% for all retail sales).
This was well above the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 0.2% increase in October, and no change ex-auto.
This was a solid report, especially following the very strong September report.
Posted by Bill McBride on 11/15/2011 08:30:00 AM