Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes increase in October

by Bill McBride on 11/29/2011 03:14:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for October 2011. In the past month, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in five, and remained unchanged in two (Georgia and New Mexico) for a one-month diffusion index of 76. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 42 states, decreased in seven, and remained unchanged in one (Delaware) for a three-month diffusion index of 70.
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityClick on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In October, 45 states had increasing activity, up from 39 in September. This is the highest level since April.

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and all green earlier this year - but this is an improvement from September.

Earlier:
CoreLogic: 10.7 Million U.S. Properties with Negative Equity in Q3
Case Shiller: Home Prices decline in September
Real House Prices and House Price-to-Rent