by Bill McBride on 11/30/2011 05:27:00 PM
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was unchanged at 4.00% in October. This is down from 4.52% in October of 2010. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate increased to 3.54% in October, up from 3.51% in September. This is down from 3.82% in October 2010. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
These are loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Click on graph for larger image
Tracking this on a monthly basis this is kind of like watching grass grow, but the serious delinquency rates are generally falling - but only falling slowly. The reason for the slow decline is most likely the backlog of homes in the foreclosure process.
The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, and at this pace of decline, the delinquency rate will not be back to "normal" for a number of years.