Monday, October 24, 2011

Chicago Fed: Economic activity improved in September

by Bill McBride on 10/24/2011 08:30:00 AM

This is a composite index from the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity improved in September

Led by improvements in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to –0.22 in September from –0.59 in August.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to –0.21 in September from –0.28 in August, but remained negative for the sixth consecutive month. September’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. Likewise, the economic slack reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image.

According to the Chicago Fed:
A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.
This index suggests the economy was still growing in September, but below trend.

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