Thursday, August 11, 2011

Trade Deficit increased in June

by Bill McBride on 8/11/2011 09:15:00 AM

The Department of Commerce reports:

[T]otal June exports of $170.9 billion and imports of $223.9 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $53.1 billion, up from $50.8 billion in May, revised. June exports were $4.1 billion less than May exports of $175.0 billion. June imports were $1.9 billion less than May imports of $225.8 billion.
The trade deficit was well above the consensus forecast of $48 billion.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through June 2011.

U.S. Trade Exports Imports Click on graph for larger image.

Both exports and imports decreased in June (seasonally adjusted). Exports are well above the pre-recession peak and up 13% compared to June 2010; imports are almost back to the pre-recession peak, and up about 13% compared to June 2010.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through June.

U.S. Trade Deficit The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Oil averaged $106.00 per barrel in June, down from $108.70 per barrel in May. There is a bit of a lag with prices, and import prices will fall further in July.

The trade deficit with China increased to $26.7 billion; trade with China remains a significant issue.