Monday, August 22, 2011

MBA Delinquency Survey: Comments and State Data

by Bill McBride on 8/22/2011 12:25:00 PM

A couple of comments from MBA chief economist Jay Brinkmann on the conference call:

• The bad news is short term delinquencies increased in Q2. The not-so-bad news is long serious delinquencies declined slightly.

• Because of the high level of delinquencies, there are some questions about the accuracy of the seasonal adjustment.

• Florida has almost 25% of all loans in the U.S. in the foreclosure process. California is 2nd with 10.6%, but the percent of loans in-foreclosure in California (3.62%) is actually below the national average (4.43%).

• Judicial foreclosure states usually have the highest percentage of loans in the foreclosure process.

MBA in Foreclosure by State Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state and by foreclosure process. Red is for states with a judicial foreclosure process. Because the judicial process is longer, those states typically have a higher percentage of loans in the process. Nevada is an exception.

Florida, Nevada, New Jersey and Illinois are the top four states with percent of loans in the foreclosure process.

MBA Delinquency by PeriodThis graph shows all delinquent loans by state (sorted by percent seriously delinquent).

Florida and Nevada have the highest percentage of serious delinquent loans, followed by New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Ohio and Maine.

I'll post some more graphs later to show which states are seeing improvement.

Note: the MBA's National Delinquency Survey (NDS) covered "MBA’s National Delinquency Survey covers about 43.9 million first-lien mortgages on one- to four-unit residential properties" and the "The NDS is estimated to cover around 88 percent of the outstanding first-lien mortgages in the market." This gives almost 50 million total first lien mortgages or about 6.4 million delinquent or in foreclosure.

MBA Delinquency by Period The third graph shows the number of loans delinquent in each state (as opposed to the percent). California is the largest state, so it is no surprise that the number of delinquent loans is very high (I'd expect California to always be #1). In that sense this graph is misleading - in reality California is in about the same shape as Indiana and Rhode Island (previous graph).

Florida has 7.6% of all loans, but almost 25% of all loans in-foreclosure and 18% of all seriously delinquent loans. In most ways, dividing this by states is arbitrary - except the foreclosure process matters.

Earlier:
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies increased slightly in Q2