Thursday, August 18, 2011

Existing Home Sales in July: 4.67 million SAAR, 9.4 months of supply

by Bill McBride on 8/18/2011 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Down in July but Up Strongly From a Year Ago

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.67 million in July from 4.84 million in June, but are 21.0 percent above the 3.86 million unit pace in July 2010, which was a cyclical low immediately following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit.
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Total housing inventory at the end of July fell 1.7 percent to 3.65 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 9.2-month supply in June.
Existing Home Sales Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in July 2011 (4.67 million SAAR) were 3.5% lower than last month, and were 21% above the July 2010 rate.

Existing Home InventoryThe second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 3.65 million in July from 3.72 million in June.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory decreased 8.9% year-over-year in July from July 2010. This is the sixth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory.

Months of supply increased to 9.4 months in July, up from 9.2 months in June. This is much higher than normal. These sales numbers were below the consensus, but right at Lawler's forecast of 4.69 million using the NAR method.

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