Monday, July 25, 2011

Chicago Fed: Economic growth below average in June

by Bill McBride on 7/25/2011 08:30:00 AM

No surprise (this is a composite index) ... from the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic growth again below average in June

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to –0.46 in June from –0.55 in May; however, the index remained negative for the third consecutive month. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index improved in June, but only one made a positive contribution to the index.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to –0.60 in June from –0.31 in May, remaining negative for a third consecutive month and reaching its lowest level since October 2009.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

According to the Chicago Fed:
A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.
This index suggests the economy was still growing in June, but below trend.

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