by Bill McBride on 6/20/2011 11:30:00 AM
Monday, June 20, 2011
This data is for April and gasoline prices were at the highest level of the year at end of April and in early May - so the YoY decline might be less in June.
Note: WTI future oil prices are down to $92.53 per barrel (down from $113.39 on April 29th), and Brent Crude is at $112.04 per barrel (down from $126.64). Gasoline prices are off over 30 cents per gallon from the recent peak.
The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported that vehicle miles driven in April were down 2.4% compared to April 2010:
Travel on all roads and streets changed by -2.4% (-6.1 billion vehicle miles) for April 2011 as compared with April 2010. Travel for the month is estimated to be 250.5 billion vehicle miles.Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
Cumulative Travel for 2011 changed by -0.8% (-7.1 billion vehicle miles). The Cumulative estimate for the year is 939.2 billion vehicle miles of travel.
This graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven.
Note: in the early '80s, miles driven (rolling 12 months) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months. Currently miles driven has been below the previous peak for 41 months - so this is a new record for longest period below the previous peak - and still counting!
The second graph shows the year-over-year change from the same month in the previous year. So far the current decline is not as a severe as in 2008.
With the decline in oil and gasoline prices, the YoY decline in miles driven will probably not be as large in June.