Tuesday, June 07, 2011

CoreLogic: Negative Equity by State and more

by Bill McBride on 6/07/2011 08:12:00 PM

As I mentioned this morning, CoreLogic released the Q1 2011 negative equity report today.

CoreLogic ... today released negative equity data showing that 10.9 million, or 22.7 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the first quarter of 2011, down slightly from 11.1 million, or 23.1 percent, in the fourth quarter. An additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than five percent equity, referred to as near-negative equity, in the first quarter.
Here are a couple of graphs from the report:

CoreLogic Distribution Negative EquityClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the distribution of negative equity (and near negative equity). The more negative equity, the more at risk the homeowner is to losing their home.

Close to 10% of homeowners with mortgages have more than 25% negative equity. This is trending down slowly - the decline is apparently mostly due to homes lost in foreclosure.

CoreLogic, Default by Negative EquityThe second graph from CoreLogic shows the default rate by percent negative equity.

The default rate increases the more 'underwater' the property, and the default rate really increases with Loan-to-values (LTV) of 125% or more.

Note that most homes with LTVs of 125% are still current. Many of these people will be stuck in their homes for years - or eventually default.

CoreLogic, Negative Equity by StateThe third graph shows the break down of negative equity by state. Note: Data not available for Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

"Nevada had the highest negative equity percentage with 63 percent of all mortgaged properties underwater, followed by Arizona (50 percent), Florida (46 percent), Michigan (36 percent) and California (31 percent). ... Las Vegas led the nation with a 66 percent negative equity share, followed by Stockton (56 percent), Phoenix (55 percent), Modesto (55 percent) and Reno (54 percent)."

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