Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Bernanke Press Briefing 2:15 PM ET

by Bill McBride on 6/22/2011 01:57:00 PM

Below is a live video feed for Ben Bernanke's press conference.

UPDATE: The forecast updates are below the video.

The FOMC statement was released at 12:30 PM. The FOMC noted that the recovery was "continuing at a moderate pace" although slower "than the Committee had expected". They also noted "inflation has picked up in recent months".

The FOMC believes the slowdown is temporary and the pickup in inflation is transitory.



Here are the new FOMC projections.

GDP growth was revised down to around 2.8% this year.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1201120122013
Jan 2011 Projections3.4 to 3.93.5 to 4.43.7 to 4.6
April 2011 Projections3.1 to 3.33.5 to 4.23.5 to 4.3
June 2011 Projections2.7 to 2.93.3 to 3.73.5 to 4.2
1 Projections of change in real GDP and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was revised up to 8.6% to 8.9% (this is Q4 unemployment rate). The FOMC thinks the unemployment rate will still be around 8% at the end of 2012!

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2201120122013
Jan 2011 Projections8.8 to 9.07.6 to 8.16.8 to 7.2
April 2011 Projections8.4 to 8.77.6 to 7.96.8 to 7.2
June 2011 Projections8.6 to 8.97.8 to 8.27.0 to 7.5
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Inflation was revised up for 2011.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1201120122013
Jan 2011 Projections1.3 to 1.71.0 to 1.91.2 to 2.0
April 2011 Projections2.1 to 2.81.2 to 2.01.4 to 2.0
June 2011 Projections2.3 to 2.51.5 to 2.01.5 to 2.0

But core inflation is seen at levels still below the FOMC target.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core Inflation1201120122013
Jan 2011 Projections1.0 to 1.31.0 to 1.51.2 to 2.0
April 2011 Projections1.3 to 1.61.3 to 1.81.4 to 2.0
June 2011 Projections1.5 to 1.81.4 to 2.01.4 to 2.0

Last 10 Posts