Monday, May 09, 2011

Zillow on Negative Equity: 28.4% of all single-family homes with mortgages are "underwater"

by Bill McBride on 5/09/2011 12:35:00 PM

Note: The most recent Negative Equity report from CoreLogic showed 11.1 million, or 23.1 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the fourth quarter of 2010. With falling house prices, CoreLogic will probably show more homeowners have negative equity in Q1.

From Zillow: Negative equity reached a new high with 28.4 percent of all single-family homes with mortgages underwater

Negative equity reached a new high mark with 28.4 percent of single-family homeowners with mortgages underwater at the end of the first quarter, up from 27 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010. A homeowner is in negative equity when they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth.
...
With substantial home value declines, as well as increasing negative equity and foreclosures, Zillow forecasts show it is unlikely that home values will reach a bottom in 2011. First quarter data has prompted Zillow to revise its forecast, now predicting a bottom in 2012, at the earliest.
The following table from Zillow shows negative equity percentages for the 25 largests MSAs. In a number of MSAs, more than half of single-family homes with mortgages have negative equity: Phoneix, Tampa, Atlanta, Riverside (CA), and Sacramento. Chicago, Minneapolis and Miami are all close. Las Vegas isn't included on this list, but according to CoreLogic, Nevada has the highest percentage of homes with negative equity.

Largest 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas Covered by Zillow

Zillow Home Value Index


Q1 2011

QoQ Change

YoY Change

Change From Peak

Negative Equity*

United States

$169,600

-3.0%

-8.2%

-29.5%

28.4%

New York, N.Y.

$346,600

-1.6%

-5.3%

-24.2%

17.1%

Los Angeles, Calif.

$386,400

-3.0%

-7.6%

-36.1%

21.0%

Chicago, Ill.

$167,900

-4.8%

-13.8%

-38.1%

45.7%

Dallas, Tex.

$125,400

-1.2%

-6.9%

-13.2%

n/a

Philadelphia, Pa.

$187,600

-3.2%

-10.3%

-20.5%

22.1%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

$137,300

-1.8%

-12.8%

-55.4%

47.7%

Washington, D.C.

$305,900

-1.5%

-7.0%

-30.3%

29.5%

Atlanta, Ga.

$121,100

-4.4%

-17.3%

-33.7%

55.7%

Detroit, Mich.

$70,600

-5.2%

-17.3%

-55.5%

36.3%

Boston, Mass.

$305,800

-2.6%

-5.3%

-23.2%

16.9%

San Francisco, Calif.

$467,000

-3.8%

-10.2%

-33.9%

25.7%

Phoenix, Ariz.

$126,100

-2.3%

-11.2%

-55.3%

68.4%

Riverside, Calif.

$185,800

-1.8%

-3.2%

-53.8%

50.7%

Seattle, Wash.

$259,200

-1.7%

-11.7%

-32.1%

34.4%

Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.

$159,000

-4.8%

-15.1%

-35.6%

46.2%

San Diego, Calif.

$347,500

-2.1%

-5.5%

-35.3%

26.0%

St. Louis, Mo.

$127,900

-4.0%

-9.6%

-18.7%

31.2%

Tampa, Fla.

$107,200

-3.8%

-10.9%

-50.6%

59.8%

Baltimore, Md.

$218,300

-2.5%

-9.8%

-27.5%

29.6%

Denver, Colo.

$192,300

-2.7%

-9.6%

-17.2%

41.0%

Pittsburgh, Pa.

$105,800

-0.2%

-0.1%

-5.1%

6.8%

Portland, Ore.

$203,300

-3.0%

-12.1%

-30.6%

35.9%

Cleveland, Ohio

$108,500

-3.9%

-9.1%

-24.7%

41.4%

Sacramento, Calif.

$207,400

-4.2%

-11.0%

-50.1%

51.2%

Orlando, Fla.

$115,700

-2.9%

-7.8%

-55.2%

n/a

*Negative equity refers to the % of single-family homes with mortgages.

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