Sunday, May 15, 2011

Schedule for Week of May 15th

by Bill McBride on 5/15/2011 09:01:00 AM

Earlier:
Summary for Week Ending May 13th

Three key housing reports will be released this week: May homebuilder confidence on Monday, April housing starts on Tuesday, and April existing home sales on Wednesday.

There will also be three manufacturing reports released: the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys for May, and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April. Last month there was some concern that growth in manufacturing was slowing, and these surveys will provide an early hint for activity in May.

----- Monday, May 16th -----

8:30 AM ET: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 20.0, down slightly from 21.7 in April.

9:00 AM: Speech, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, "Innovation, Research, and Development: The Government's Role", At the Conference on "New Building Blocks for Jobs and Economic Growth", Washington, D.C.

10 AM: The May NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 17, up slightly from 16 in April. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This index has been below 25 for forty six consecutive months (almost 4 years).

----- Tuesday, May 17th -----

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for April. After collapsing following the housing bubble, housing starts have mostly moved sideways at a very depressed level for over two years.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

Total housing starts were at 549 thousand (SAAR) in March, up 7.2% from the revised February rate of 512 thousand (revised up from 479 thousand). Single-family starts increased 7.7% to 422 thousand in March (February was revised up to 392 thousand from 375 thousand).

The consensus is for an increase to 570,000 (SAAR) in April.

9:15 AM ET: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April.

Industrial ProductionThis graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in March to 93.6, however February was revised down from 93.0 to 92.8. Production is still 7.0% below the pre-recession levels at the end of 2007.

The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production in April, and an increase to 77.6% (from 77.4%) for Capacity Utilization.

----- Wednesday, May 18th -----

Early: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

AIA Architecture Billing IndexThis graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index showed billings increased slightly in March (index at 50.5, anything above indicates an increase in billings).

This index usually leads investment in non-residential structures (hotels, malls, office) by 9 to 12 months.

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last couple months suggesting weak home sales through mid-year (not counting all cash purchases).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of April 26-27, 2011. The minutes were overshadowed by Fed Chairman Bernanke’s press conference and the previous release of the updated forecasts.

----- Thursday, May 19th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of claims has increased over the last few weeks. The consensus is for a decrease to 420,000 from 434,000 last week.

8:30 NY Fed President William Dudley speaks, “The US Economic Outlook — Where Are We Headed”, New Paltz, NY

10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 1st Quarter 2011 National Delinquency Survey (NDS)

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for May. The consensus is for an increase to 20.0, up from the 18.5 last month.

10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for April. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase for this index.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 5.2 million at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in April, up about 2% from the 5.10 million SAAR in March.

Existing Home SalesThis graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in March 2011 (5.10 million SAAR) were 3.7% higher than in February, and were 6.3% lower than March 2010.

In addition to sales, the level of inventory and months-of-supply will be very important (since months-of-supply impacts prices).

----- Friday, May 20th -----

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment for April 2011

Best wishes to All!