Wednesday, March 30, 2011

CoreLogic: Shadow Inventory Declines Slightly

by Bill McBride on 3/30/2011 10:25:00 AM

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Shadow Inventory Declines Slightly, However, Nine Months’ Worth of Supply Remains

CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph from CoreLogic shows the breakdown of "shadow inventory" by category. For this report, CoreLogic estimates the number of 90+ day delinquencies, foreclosures and REOs not currently listed for sale. Obviously if a house is listed for sale, it is already included in the "visible supply" and cannot be counted as shadow inventory.

CoreLogic estimates the "shadow inventory" (by this method) at about 1.8 million units.

CoreLogic ... reported today that the current residential shadow inventory as of January 2011 declined to 1.8 million units, representing a nine months’ supply. This is down slightly from 2.0 million units, also a nine
months’ supply, from a year ago.

CoreLogic estimates current shadow inventory, also known as pending supply, by calculating the number of distressed properties not currently listed on multiple listing services (MLS) that are seriously delinquent (90 days or more), in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) by lenders. Transition rates of “delinquency to foreclosure” and “foreclosure to REO” are used to identify the currently distressed non-listed properties most likely to become REO properties. Properties that are not yet delinquent but may become delinquent in the future are not included in the estimate of the current shadow inventory. Shadow inventory is typically not included in the official metrics of unsold inventory.
...
Of the 1.8-million unit current shadow inventory supply, 870,000 units are seriously delinquent (4.2 months’ supply), 445,000 are in some stage of foreclosure (2.1 months’ supply) and 470,000 are already in REO (2.2 months’ supply).
CoreLogic Visible and Pending InventoryThe second graph shows the same information as "months-of-supply". This is in addition to the visible months-of-supply (inventory listed for sale). Note: It is the visible inventory that mostly impacts prices, but this suggests the visible inventory will stay elevated for some time (no surprise).

CoreLogic also notes:
In addition to the current shadow inventory supply, there are nearly 2 million current negative equity loans that are more than 50 percent “upside down” that will likely become shadow supply in the near future.
This report provides a couple of key numbers: 1) there are 1.8 million homes seriously delinquent, in the foreclosure process or REO that are not currently listed for sale, and 2) there are about 2 million current negative equity loans that are more than 50 percent “upside down”.

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