Friday, February 25, 2011

Q4 real GDP growth revised down to 2.8% annualized rate

by Bill McBride on 2/25/2011 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2010 (second estimate)

The small downward revision came mostly from PCE, imports, and state and local government expenditures (see table at bottom for changes in contribution to GDP).

GDP Growth Rate Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years. The current quarter is in blue.

The dashed line is the median growth rate of 3.05%. The current recovery is still below trend growth.

The following table shows the changes from the advance release (this is the Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product).

Contributions to Percent Change in Q4 Real Gross Domestic Product
 Advance2nd Estimate (Revision)Change
Percent change at annual rate:   
Gross domestic product3.22.8-0.4
Percentage points at annual rates:   
Personal consumption expenditures3.042.88-0.16
Goods2.262.2-0.06
Durable goods1.481.44-0.04
Nondurable goods0.780.76-0.02
Services0.780.68-0.1
Gross private domestic investment-3.2-3.130.07
Fixed investment0.50.570.07
Nonresidential0.430.510.08
Structures0.020.110.09
Equipment and software0.410.39-0.02
Residential0.080.06-0.02
Change in private inventories-3.7-3.70
Net exports of goods and services3.443.35-0.09
Exports1.041.180.14
Goods0.850.990.14
Services0.190.190
Imports2.42.17-0.23
Goods2.292.07-0.22
Services0.110.110
Government consumption expenditures and gross investment-0.11-0.31-0.2
Federal-0.01-0.02-0.01
National defense-0.11-0.12-0.01
Nondefense0.10.10
State and local-0.1-0.29-0.19

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