Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Retail Sales increase 0.8% in November

by Bill McBride on 12/14/2010 08:50:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.8% from October to November(seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 7.7% from November 2009.

Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 12.8% from the bottom, and only off 0.3% from the pre-recession peak.

Year-over-year change in Retail SalesThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.9% on a YoY basis (7.7% for all retail sales).

Here is the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $378.7 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 7.7 percent (±0.7%) above November 2009. Total sales for the September through November 2010 period were up 7.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2010 percent change was revised from +1.2 percent (±0.5%) to +1.7 percent (±0.2%).
This was above expectations for a 0.6% increase (and October was revised up). Retail sales ex-autos were up 1.2%, above expectations of a 0.6% increase.

Retail sales are almost back to the pre-recession peak in November 2007.

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