by Bill McBride on 12/14/2010 08:50:00 AM
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.8% from October to November(seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 7.7% from November 2009.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
Retail sales are up 12.8% from the bottom, and only off 0.3% from the pre-recession peak.
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales (ex-gasoline) since 1993.
Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.9% on a YoY basis (7.7% for all retail sales).
Here is the Census Bureau report:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $378.7 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 7.7 percent (±0.7%) above November 2009. Total sales for the September through November 2010 period were up 7.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2010 percent change was revised from +1.2 percent (±0.5%) to +1.7 percent (±0.2%).This was above expectations for a 0.6% increase (and October was revised up). Retail sales ex-autos were up 1.2%, above expectations of a 0.6% increase.
Retail sales are almost back to the pre-recession peak in November 2007.