Friday, December 31, 2010

House Price Predictions

by Bill McBride on 12/31/2010 02:19:00 PM

Here are a few predictions on house prices (I'm working on mine):

• From Peter Schiff in the WSJ: Home Prices Are Still Too High

[The Case Shiller] index would need to decline an additional 20.3% from current levels just to get back to the trend line.
With a bleak economic prospect stretching far out into the future, I feel that a 10% dip below the 100-year trend line is a reasonable expectation within the next five years ...
So put Schiff down for another 30% or so.

• From Gary Shilling: House Prices Will Now Drop Another 20%

• From Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs: Another 5% in 2011.
[W]e now expect house prices to fall another 5% during 2011. The reason is the still-large excess supply, as we have only unwound about one-third of the pre-bubble increase in the homeowner vacancy rate so far.
I'll post my prediction soon.