Monday, November 22, 2010

Existing Home Sales Forecast, and Ireland Update

by Bill McBride on 11/22/2010 04:00:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler (existing home sales will be released tomorrow):

Based on the data I have seen so far, I estimate that existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of around 4.46 million homes, down 1.5% from September’s pace, and down 25.4% from last October’s “tax-credit-goosed” pace. The YOY decline in unadjusted sales will be larger than that for seasonally adjusted sales for “calendar” reasons (including the fact that this October had one fewer business day than last October).

The local realtor/MLS inventory numbers I’ve seen have on aggregate been broadly consistent with the 3.2% national drop in active listings from September to October on realtor.com, though the local realtor numbers suggest that the NAR’s estimate may show a somewhat greater decline – perhaps closer to -3.7%(The NAR does not use national listings, but instead uses listings from its sample of local MLS/associations/boards).
A 3.7% decline in inventory (from September) would put inventory at 3.89 million. Based on this estimate, the months-of-supply in October was around 10.4 months.

And on Ireland:
  • From the Irish Times: Taoiseach to dissolve Dáil after 'vital' budget passed. Translation: The Irish government collapsed and the Prime Minister (Taoiseach) will be calling for new elections.

  • From the Irish Times: Irish borrowing costs increase
    Irish borrowing costs, which fell under 8 per cent earlier today on news that EU had approved a Government request for a multi-billion euro package, rose shortly after the Greens’ announcement and closed at 8.1 per cent.

    Discussions resumed today between delegations from the IMF, the EU and the Commission and a team of Irish officials to discuss the terms of the bailout.
    An excellent European source told me today that his attention is now on Spain - and that there are some early troubling signs of rising credit costs (not just the ten year yield). Something to keep an eye on ...

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