Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Existing Home Inventory increases 8.4% Year-over-Year

by Bill McBride on 11/23/2010 11:13:00 AM

Earlier the NAR released the existing home sales data for October; here are a couple more graphs ...

The first graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to look at the YoY change.

Year-over-year Inventory Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Although inventory decreased from September 2010 to October 2010, inventory increased 8.4% YoY in October. This is the largest YoY increase in inventory since early 2008.

The year-over-year increase in inventory is especially bad news because the reported inventory very high (3.864 million), and the 10.5 months of supply in October is far above normal.

Existing Home Sales NSA By request - the second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

The red columns are for 2010. Sales for the last four months are significantly below the previous years, and sales will probably be well weak for the remainder of 2010.

The bottom line: Sales were weak in October - almost exactly at the levels I expected - and will continue to be weak for some time. Inventory is very high - and the significant year-over-year increase in inventory is very concerning. The high level of inventory and months-of-supply will put downward pressure on house prices.