by Bill McBride on 9/30/2010 11:13:00 AM
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Usually I don't post all the regional manufacturing surveys, but it appears manufacturing is slowing right now - and the regional surveys provide early clues ...
From the Kansas City Fed:
Tenth District manufacturing activity rebounded in September, and producers’ expectations for future activity also improved.Here is an update to the graph comparing the regional Fed surveys with the ISM manufacturing survey, including the Kansas City survey released this morning:
The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in September was 14, up from 0 in August and equal to 14 in July ... The shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes jumped back into positive territory.
The employment index was unchanged [at -2].
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
For this graph I averaged the New York and Philly Fed surveys (dashed green, through September), and averaged five surveys including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City (blue).
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through August (right axis).
The ISM Manufacturing index will be released tomorrow and the consensus is for a decline to 54.5 in September from 56.3 in August.
Posted by Bill McBride on 9/30/2010 11:13:00 AM