Monday, September 27, 2010

Chicago Fed: Economic activity weakened in August

by Bill McBride on 9/27/2010 08:43:00 AM

Note: This is a composite index based on a number of economic releases.

From the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity weakened in August

Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to –0.53 in August from –0.11 in July. None of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made a positive contribution in August.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to –0.42 in August from –0.27 in July. August’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. According to the Chicago Fed:
A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.