Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index declines in August, "signals struggling economy"

by Bill McBride on 9/14/2010 03:30:00 PM

This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce IndexTM

Press Release: August PCI Decline Signals Struggling Economy, but no Double-Dip

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management fell 1 percent in August, a disappointing number that closes out an erratic summer in the PCI.
...
“The August data is obviously discouraging after the cautious optimism created from July’s report,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist. “There is not much to feel good about with the August data in terms of the unemployment picture, but there is a silver lining in that the August PCI is still far from double-dip territory."
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“The restocking of inventory and exceptional growth in imports that were helping drive the transportation of goods and materials appears to be over,” said Craig Manson, senior vice president and index expert for Ceridian.
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The PCI is based on an analysis of real-time diesel fuel consumption data from over the road trucking tracked by Ceridian ...
Pulse of Commerce Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the index since January 1999.

This is a new index, and doesn't have much of a track record in real time, although the data appears to suggest that the recovery has slowed - even stalled - over the last 4 months.