by Bill McBride on 8/22/2010 09:00:00 AM
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Three key housing reports and the second estimate of Q2 GDP will be the highlights this week. Existing home sales will be released on Tuesday, New Home sales on Wednesday, the MBA Q2 National Delinquency Survey on Thursday, and Q2 GDP on Friday. A busy week ...
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July). This is a composite index of other data.
10:30 AM: Q2 Quarterly Banking Profile from the FDIC.
Note: could be released on Tuesday.
8:15 AM: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak to the Indianapolis Neighborhood Housing Partnership (Evans will be on the FOMC in 2011).
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for a decrease to 4.65 million (SAAR) in July from 5.37 million in June. Take the under! Housing economist Tom Lawler is projecting 3.95 million SAAR. In addition to sales, the level of inventory and months-of-supply will be very important (since months-of-supply impacts prices).
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for a decrease in the index to +11 (still expanding) from 16 last month. These regional surveys are important now since it appears manufacturing is slowing (or contracting like the Philly Fed survey showed last week).
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly over the last few weeks - suggesting reported home sales in July and August will be very weak.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.5% increase in durable good orders.
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a slight increase in sales to 340K (SAAR) in July from 330K in June. New Home Sales already collapsed in May since sales are counted when contracts are signed - whereas existing home sales will collapse in July (counted when sales are closed).
10:00 AM: 10:00 FHFA House Price Index for June. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).
Note: Aug. 26-28th Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium at Jackson Hole, WY
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for a slight decrease to 495K from 500K last week. The increase in weekly claims is very concerning, and the 4-week average will probably be at the highest level since last November.
10:00 AM: MBA's Q2 2010 National Delinquency Survey (NDS). This is key report of mortgage delinquencies. I'll also report on the conference call Thursday AM.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for August. The index was at 14 in July.
8:30 AM: Q2 GDP (second release). In the advance release, the BEA reported real GDP increased at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q2. However subsequent economic releases for construction spending, inventory and trade all suggest downward revisions in the second release. The consensus is for a downward revision to 1.3% real annualized growth.
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for August).
10:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming. The speech is titled "The Economic Outlook and the Federal Reserve's Policy Response".
After 4:00 PM: The FDIC will probably have another busy Friday afternoon ...