Monday, July 26, 2010

New Home Sales: Worst June on Record

by Bill McBride on 7/26/2010 10:00:00 AM

Ignore all the month to previous month comparisons. May was revised down sharply and that makes the increase look significant. Here is the bottom line: this was the worst June for new home sales on record.

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 330 thousand. This is an increase from the record low of 267 thousand in May (revised from 300 thousand).

New Home Sales Monthly Not Seasonally Adjusted Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Note the Red columns for 2010. In June 2010, 30 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). This is a new record low for June.

The previous record low for the month of June was 34 thousand in 1982; the record high was 115 thousand in June 2005.

New Home Sales and Recessions The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 47 years.

Sales of new single-family houses in June 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000 ... This is 23.6 percent (±15.3%) above the revised May rate of 267,000, but is 16.7 percent (±10.9%) below the June 2009 estimate of 396,000.
And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Months of Supply and RecessionsMonths of supply decreased to 7.6 in June from a revised 9.6 in May (revised from 8.5). The all time record was 12.4 months of supply in January 2009. This is still very high (less than 6 months supply is normal).
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 210,000. This represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate.
New Home Sales Inventory The final graph shows new home inventory.

The 267 thousand annual sales rate for May is the all time record. This is a very sharp downward revision.

The 330 thousand in June is the worst June on record. With all the gyrations, it is difficult to see what is happening month to month, but overall this was a very weak report.

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