by Bill McBride on 6/22/2010 08:36:00 AM
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Moody's reported today that the Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index increased 1.7% in April, after declining for the previous two months. This is a repeat sales measure of commercial real estate prices.
Below is a comparison of the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and the Case-Shiller composite 20 index.
Notes: Beware of the "Real" in the title - this index is not inflation adjusted. Moody's CRE price index is a repeat sales index like Case-Shiller - but there are far fewer commercial sales - and that can impact prices.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
CRE prices only go back to December 2000.
The Case-Shiller Composite 20 residential index is in blue (with Dec 2000 set to 1.0 to line up the indexes).
It is possible that commercial real prices have bottomed - in general - but it is hard to tell because the number of transactions are very low and there are a number of distressed sales. Prices have been choppy and mostly moving sideways.
Commercial real estate values are now down 16% over the last year, and down 41% from the peak in late 2007.