by Bill McBride on 6/23/2010 12:16:00 PM
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
The Census Bureau released the weekly payroll data for the week ending June 12th this morning (ht Bob_in_MA). If we subtract the number of temporary 2010 Census workers in the week containing the 12th of the month, from the same week for the previous month - this provides a close estimate for the impact of the Census hiring on payroll employment.
The Census Bureau releases the actual number with the employment report.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
This graph shows the number of Census workers paid each week. The red labels are the weeks of the BLS payroll survey.
The Census payroll decreased from 573,779 for the week ending May 15th to 330,737 for the week ending June 12th.
So my estimate for the impact of the Census on June payroll employment is minus 243 thousand (this will be close). The employment report will be released on July 2nd, and the headline number for June - including Census numbers - will almost certainly be negative. But a key number will be the hiring ex-Census (so we will add back the Census workers this month).