by Bill McBride on 6/26/2010 06:26:00 PM
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Just a few notes on the June employment report to be released on Friday, July 2nd:
Andrew Tilton of Goldman Sachs noted this in a research note yesterday:
"We are cautiously optimistic that June’s payroll report will show a pickup in private-sector payroll growth to around 150,000. In part, this is because there seems to be some “crowding out” of private sector payroll growth by short-term Census hiring—indeed, this may explain a good part of the payroll disappointment last month. Total payrolls should be down about 100,000 in June as a large portion of Census employment rolls off."There will be some preliminary reports on employment released during the coming week: the ADP employment report, the Chicago PMI, and the ISM surveys.
However it is concerning that the regional Fed manufacturing surveys were mixed on employment (manufacturing has been one of the stronger sectors):
In addition weekly initial unemployment claims have remained elevated. Initial weekly claims have averaged 464,000 thousand in June, almost the same level as each of the previous 5 months.
Here is a repeat of the graph showing percent job losses during recessions, aligned at the bottom:
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.
The dotted line shows the impact of Census hiring. In May, there were 564,000 temporary 2010 Census workers on the payroll. Just under half of those Census jobs will go away in June, and the two red lines will meet sometime later this year.
Posted by Bill McBride on 6/26/2010 06:26:00 PM