by Bill McBride on 6/10/2010 11:20:00 AM
Thursday, June 10, 2010
This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce IndexTM
Press Release: PCI Strikes Optimistic Note For U.S. Economy with 3.1 Percent Gain in May
With a monthly increase not seen since February 1999, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management climbed 3.1 percent in May. The increase represents the strongest indicator yet from the PCI that the U.S. economy is on the upswing.Click on graph for larger image in new window.
“Absent good news from the usual recovery indicators – consumer optimism expressed by buying homes and cars, and business optimism expressed by hiring – the spike in the PCI is indeed very welcome news for the economy,” said Ed Leamer, the PCI’s chief economist. “One month does not make a trend, but at least we are back in a recovery groove.”
The May result makes up for April’s decline of 0.3 percent and for the PCI’s flat, overall performance during the first four months of 2010.
The PCI is based on an analysis of real-time diesel fuel consumption data ...
This graph shows the index since January 1999.
Note: This index appears to lead Industrial Production (IP), but there is a significant amount of monthly noise. This is a new index and might be interesting to follow along with the Trucking and Railroad data.
Here is a video of Leamer's comments on the report. After a few months of almost no growth, this index increased sharply in May.
Posted by Bill McBride on 6/10/2010 11:20:00 AM