by Bill McBride on 5/30/2010 05:17:00 PM
Sunday, May 30, 2010
By request ... here is an update through April with the impact of Census hiring added.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - but this time aligned at the bottom of the recession. This assumes that the 2007 recession has reached bottom.
The current recession has been bouncing along the bottom for a few months - so the choice of bottom is a little arbitrary (plus or minus a month or two).
Notice that the 1990 and 2001 recessions were followed by jobless recoveries - and the eventual job recovery was gradual. In earlier recessions the recovery was somewhat similar and a little faster than the decline (somewhat symmetrical).
The dotted line shows the impact of Census hiring.
In April, there were 154,000 temporary 2010 Census workers on the payroll. This barely shows up on the graph.
The number of temporary workers will jump to around 573,000 in May - and the dotted line will be well below the red line. Starting in June, the number of Census workers will decline - and the two lines will meet later this year.