Wednesday, May 19, 2010

MBA Q1 National Delinquency Survey Conference Call

by Bill McBride on 5/19/2010 11:06:00 AM

On the MBA conference call concerning the "Q1 2010 National Delinquency Survey", MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said this morning:

  • These are "extraordinary times" and the seasonal adjustment may be incorrect. The 90+ day delinquency bucket is very high and might not be seasonal. If that is backed out, delinquencies are "flat".

  • FHA foreclosure starts up sharply.

  • "Shadow inventory" of 4.3 million loans that need to worked through (90 day delinquent or in foreclosure) - or they will become REOs or distressed sales.

  • Prime fixed rate is now the key problem!

  • "Sand states" will not be as dominant as the problem moves to prime fixed rate.

  • Still expect some improvement this year for delinquencies, although a little less optimistic than last quarter.

    MBA Prime Delinquency and Foreclosure Rate Click on graph for larger image in new window.

    This graph shows the delinquency and foreclosure rates for all prime loans.

    This is a new record rate of prime loans in delinquency and foreclosure.

    Prime loans account for over 75% of all loans.

    "We're all subprime now!"

    NOTE: Tanta first wrote this saying in 2007 in response to the 'contained to subprime' statements.

    I'll have more later today ...

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