Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Case-Shiller House Prices "mixed" in February

by Bill McBride on 4/27/2010 09:00:00 AM

IMPORTANT: These graphs are Seasonally Adjusted (SA). S&P has cautioned that the seasonal adjustment is probably being distorted by irregular factors. These distortions could include distressed sales and the various government programs.

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February (actually a 3 month average).

The monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities).

From S&P: Home Prices Mixed in February 2010

Data through February 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the annual rates of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved in February compared to January 2010. For the first time since December 2006, the annual rates of change for the two Composites are positive. The 10-City Composite is up 1.4% from where it was in February 2009, and the 20-City Composite is up 0.6% versus the same time last year. However, 11 of 20 cities saw year-over-year declines.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the nominal not seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 30.0% from the peak, and up slightly in February (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 29.3% from the peak, and down slightly in February (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 is up 1.4% compared to February 2009.

The Composite 20 is up 0.6% compared to February 2009.

These are the first YoY price increases since 2006.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices decreased (SA) in 15 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in February.

Prices in Las Vegas are off 55.7% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 6.0% from the peak.

Note: Congratulations to S&P: the new release format is excellent.

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