Friday, March 26, 2010

Q4 GDP Revised down to 5.6%

by Bill McBride on 3/26/2010 08:18:00 AM

From the BEA:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 ... Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter.
The headline GDP number was revised down to 5.6% annualized growth in Q4 (from 5.9%). The following table shows the changes from the "advance estimate" to the "second estimate" to the "third estimate" for several key categories:

 AdvanceSecond EstimateThird Estimate
GDP5.7%5.9%5.6%
PCE2.0%1.7%1.6%
Residential Investment5.7%5.0%3.8%
Structures-15.4%-13.9%-18.0%
Equipment & Software13.3%18.2%19.0%
Note that PCE and Residential Investment (RI) - the two leading categories - were both revised down for Q4. This suggests that final demand was weaker in Q4 than in the previous two estimates.