Saturday, February 20, 2010

Study: Mods just Delay Foreclosures, 6.1 Million to Lose Homes

by Bill McBride on 2/20/2010 07:46:00 AM

Jeff Collins, at the O.C. Register, has a Q&A with Wayne Yamano, vice president at John Burns Real Estate Consulting: Loan mods won’t halt foreclosures, study shows

Register: Your study says that five million of the 7.7 million delinquent homes will go through foreclosure or a “foreclosure-related procedure.” How is this likely to occur?

Wayne: Most shadow inventory will get out onto the market as an REO or short sale. In any event, it results in the homeowner losing their home, and that home being added to the supply of homes available for sale.

Register: Do the remaining 2.7 million borrowers get their loan payments caught up?

Wayne: Of the 7.7 million delinquent homeowners, we actually think that only about 1.6 million will be able avoid losing their homes, and that the remaining 6.1 million will lose their homes. We say that there is 5 million units of shadow inventory because we estimate that about 1.1 million delinquent homeowners already have their homes listed for sale, and we would not classify those homes as “shadow.”

Register: When will this wave of foreclosures hit, and how will this shadow inventory affect home prices?

Wayne: We don’t believe that the shadow inventory will be dumped onto the market all at once. Although we don’t believe modification efforts will truly save a lot of homeowners from losing their homes, we do believe that these programs are effective in delaying foreclosures and pushing out the additional supply to later years.
Burns Consulting doesn't think there will be flood of homes hitting the market - they expect these homes will be lost over a few years - so in their view there will not be "another leg down in pricing".

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