by Bill McBride on 2/01/2010 07:40:00 PM
Monday, February 01, 2010
As part of the annual budget, the Obama Administration released the underlying economic assumptions too (see Page 13 of PDF)
For GDP, they are forecasting real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2010, followed by 3.8%, 4.3% and 4.2% in 2013.
For unemployment, the forecast is for an average of 10% in 2010, with a decline to 9.2% in 2011, 8.2% in 2012 and 7.3% in 2013 as shown on the following graph:
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
The blue line is the actual historical monthly unemployment rate. The red line is the Obama Administration annual forecast.
Based on this forecast, the current "human recession" will last for several years for many Americans.