by Bill McBride on 2/17/2010 12:29:00 PM
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
The following two graphs are updates from previous posts with the housing start data released this morning.
The following graph shows total housing starts and the percent vacant housing units (owner and rental) in the U.S. Note: this is a combined vacancy rate based on the Census Bureau vacancy rates for owner occupied and rental housing through Q4 2009.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
Notice that total starts are not rebounding quickly as a number of analysts expected. Instead starts have moved sideways for the last eight months.
It is very unlikely that there will be a strong rebound in housing starts with a near record number of vacant housing units.
The vacancy rate has continued to climb even after housing starts fell off a cliff. Initially this was because of a significant number of completions. Also some hidden inventory (like some 2nd homes) have become available for sale or for rent, and lately some households have probably doubled up because of tough economic times.
The second graph shows single family housing starts and unemployment (inverted). (The first graph shows total housing starts)
You can see both the correlation and the lag. The lag is usually about 12 to 18 months, with peak correlation at a lag of 16 months for single unit starts. The 2001 recession was a business investment led recession, and the pattern didn't hold.
This suggests unemployment might peak in Summer 2010 since housing starts bottomed in April 2009. However, since I expect the housing recovery to be sluggish, I also expect unemployment to remain high throughout 2010.