by Bill McBride on 1/20/2010 04:00:00 PM
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Here is a discussion of interest rate risk on the Wells Fargo conference call today (ht Brian):
Analyst: just a follow-up question on rates. I just wanted to understand, Howard, how you are thinking about the impact of the Fed exit on the fixed-income market and how you are planning on managing the balance sheet for that?So they are keeping their "powder dry", expecting an increase in rates. Many other banks are getting healthy on the carry trade ...
Howard Atkins, Wells CFO: Well, that is a good question, Betsy, and the Fed obviously is active in buying MBS. And despite the fact that the yield curve is as positively sloped as it is right now, their active purchases is a factor that is, in some senses, artificially keeping long MBS yields lower than they might otherwise be. At some point presumably, they will either gradually or more quickly reverse course and that could lead to an increase in mortgage interest rates. And as I mentioned a couple of times in my remarks, in possible preparation for that, we have been keeping our powder dry, in effect underinvesting this large base of core deposits that we have for the possibility that that reverses course.
Analyst: So you might get some OCI hit near term, but dry powder leads you to a better outlook for earnings, is that the way to think about it?
Atkins: Yes, again, while the mortgage business is showing good results right now, in effect, on the portfolio side, the investment portfolio, we, in effect, are giving up some current income. We don't believe in the carry trade and we do want to preserve some powder in case rates do go up and we'll have the powder at that point, we will invest the powder at that point to offset some -- whatever is going on in the mortgage business.
John Stumpf, CEO: I see this as the classic short-term view of the business and long-term view of the business. 400 basis points or something like that, which you make in the carry trade today is very attractive. But we think it is the wrong decision long term because we think the bias is for higher rates, not for lower rates and we are willing to wait for that to happen. We think that is the better trade.
Atkins: we are effectively giving up 400 basis points today for possibly a year or so, maybe plus or minus, to avoid the potential risk of a larger number of basis points for 30 years. So the last thing we want to do is get stuck with securities at these low levels of interest rates.
Stumpf: Because I think when rates move, they are probably going to move at some speed and I don't think it's going to be maybe a quarter. It could be more than that and it could happen relatively quickly.
Atkins: this is the same thing that we did back in 2002, 2003 when interest rates were also at cyclical low points just before they went up a lot. What we are doing now is not very different from the way the Company has always managed itself.
Posted by Bill McBride on 1/20/2010 04:00:00 PM