Friday, January 22, 2010

First American CoreLogic: House Prices Decline in November

by Bill McBride on 1/22/2010 02:26:00 PM

The Fed's favorite house price indicator from First American CoreLogic’s LoanPerformance ...

From LoanPerformance: Home Prices Continue to Depreciate

On a month-over-month basis ... national home prices declined by 0.2 percent in November 2009 compared to October 2009.
...
Including distressed transactions, the HPI has fallen 30.0 percent nationally through November from its peak in April 2006. Excluding distressed properties, the national HPI has fallen 21.8 percent from the same peak.
...
"On average, we are expecting home prices to turn around next spring," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic. "While the share of REO sales are down, allowing price declines to moderate, there is concern moving forward with the levels of shadow inventory, negative equity, and the ability of modification programs to mitigate this risk."
Loan Performance House Price Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the national LoanPerformance data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index is off 5.7% over the last year, and off 30.0% from the peak.

The index has declined for three consecutive months. I'll have some comparisons to Case-Shiller later, but according to First American CoreLogic, prices are now falling again. It might take another month for this to show up in the Case-Shiller index because it is an average over three months.