Thursday, October 15, 2009

Philly Fed Index, NY Fed Survey and Misc

by Bill McBride on 10/15/2009 11:25:00 AM

Both the Philly Fed Index and NY Fed index were positive today on manufacturing conditions in those regions ...

Here is the Philadelphia Fed Index released today: Business Outlook Survey.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, fell from a reading of 14.1 in September to 11.5 this month. The index has now remained positive for three consecutive months following a nearly continuous string of negative readings since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
...
Labor market conditions remain weak, although there are signs that widespread declines have moderated considerably. The current employment index, although still negative, increased eight points, from ‐14.3 to ‐6.8, its highest reading since September 2008.
Philly Fed Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Philly index for the last 40 years.

The index has been positive for three months now, after being negative for 19 of the previous 20 months. Employment is still weak.

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved significantly in October. The general business conditions index climbed 16 points to 34.6, its highest level in five years. The new orders index rose 11 points, and the shipments index shot up 30 points, to 35.1. Both employment indexes were positive for the first time in more than a year.
And a two miscellaneous stories:

  • From Reuters: Capital One credit card defaults rise in September
    ... Capital One said the annualized net charge-off rate ... for U.S. credit cards had risen to 9.77 percent in September from 9.32 percent in August.
  • From the Sacramento Bee: California Senate approves $10,000 tax credit for new-home buyers (ht Brad)
    The Senate voted 35-1 to reauthorize the use of $30 million in credits ... That should allow the state to give tax credits to about 4,300 more buyers of new unoccupied homes ... Eligible buyers would get a maximum of $3,333 in credits for each of the next three years.