by Bill McBride on 10/21/2009 05:13:00 PM
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Dave Altig writes at Macroblog: The growing case for a jobless recovery
Dr. Altig reviews several recent Macroblog posts, and adds:
The percentage of employee separations labeled permanent is at a recorded high.So far the current recovery is even worse than "jobless"; it is a "job-loss" recovery.
Underneath the usual total unemployment numbers are the reasons an individual is unemployed: You are on temporary layoff; you quit your job; you have reentered the labor market and have yet to find a job; or you are entering the job market for the first time and have yet to find a job. Or, finally, you have been permanently separated from your previous employer, who has no expectation of hiring you back.
The last category is the dominant reason for unemployment at this time. That might not seem surprising, but it actually is. Never, in the six recessions preceding the latest one, did permanent separations account for more than 45 percent of the unemployed. The current percentage stands at 56 percent as of September and appears to be still climbing:
Of course, none of this is proof positive that we are in for a "jobless recovery," but, to me, the odds appear to be increasing.
Posted by Bill McBride on 10/21/2009 05:13:00 PM