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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

DataQuick: SoCal home sales "inch up"

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2009 01:23:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southern California home sales inch up; median price steady

Last month 21,539 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties. That was up 0.2 percent from 21,502 in August and up 5.1 percent from 20,497 a year earlier, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

September marked the 15th month in a row with a year-over-year sales gain, although last month’s was the smallest of those increases. ... The small uptick in September sales from August was atypical. On average, sales have fallen 9.5 percent between those two months.
...
“There were more than just normal, seasonal forces at work in these September sales numbers. More attempts at short sales, which typically take longer, and new appraisal rules no doubt delayed some deals this summer, causing them to close in September rather than August. September probably also got a boost from people opting to buy sooner rather than later to take advantage of the federal tax credit for first-time buyers, which is set to expire next month,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
...
Foreclosure resales – houses and condos sold in September that had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months – made up 40.4 percent of all Southland homes resold last month. That was down slightly from a revised 41.7 percent foreclosure resales in August and down from a high of 56.7 percent in February this year.
...
A common form of financing used by first-time buyers in more affordable neighborhoods remained near record levels. Government-insured FHA mortgages made up 36.4 percent of all home purchase loans last month ...

Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards.
emphasis added
Although DataQuick doesn't track short sales, we can estimate from the Sacramento data that another 15% or so of sales in SoCal were short sales - so probably over half the sales are distressed.

This report suggests sales were strong in September - similar to other regional reports.

We will probably see a decrease in year-over-year sales soon, as the first-time homebuyer tax credit buying frenzy subsides later this year.