Saturday, October 03, 2009

Comparing Employment Recessions including Revision

by Bill McBride on 10/03/2009 08:56:00 AM

Here is a graph with an estimate of the impact of the preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision. (ht John)

Percent Job Losses During Recessions Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line is an estimate of the impact of the large benchmark revision (824 thousand more jobs lost).

The graph compares the job losses from the start of the employment recession in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

Instead of 7.2 million net jobs lost since December 2007, the preliminary benchmark estimate suggests the U.S. has lost over 8.0 million net jobs during that period.

Even before the annual revision, the current employment recession was already the worst recession since WWII in terms of percent of job losses. The benchmark revision shows this recession was even deeper. The revision will be reported in February ... just something to remember over the next few months.