Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Case-Shiller Home Price Index Increases in August

by Bill McBride on 10/27/2009 09:15:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released their monthly Home Price Indices for August this morning.

This monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities). This is the Seasonally Adjusted data - some sites report the NSA data.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 32.5% from the peak, and up about 1.0% in August.

The Composite 20 index is off 31.3% from the peak, and up 1.0% in August.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 is off 10.7% from August 2008.

The Composite 20 is off 11.4% from August 2008.

This is still a very significant YoY decline in prices.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA) in 16 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in August.

In Las Vegas, house prices have declined 55.6% from the peak. At the other end of the spectrum, prices in Dallas are only off about 4.8% from the peak - and up in 2009. Prices have declined by double digits from the peak in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities.

The debate continues - is the price increase because of the seasonal mix (distressed sales vs. non-distressed sales), the impact of the first-time home buyer frenzy on prices, less supply because of modifications and the general slowdown in the foreclosure process, or have prices actually bottomed? My guess is we will see further house price declines in many areas.

I'll compare house prices to the stress test scenarios soon.

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