by Calculated Risk on 9/03/2009 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports weekly unemployment insurance claims decreased to 570,000:

In the week ending Aug. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 570,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 574,000. The 4-week moving average was 571,250, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 567,250.
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The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Aug. 22 was 6,234,000, an increase of 92,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,142,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 4,000 to 571,250, and is now 87,500 below the peak in April.

It appears that initial weekly claims have peaked for this cycle. However it seem that weekly claims are stuck at a very high level; weekly claims have been around 570,000 for the last 8 weeks. This indicates continuing weakness in the job market. The four-week average of initial weekly claims will probably have to fall below 400,000 before the total employment stops falling.