by Bill McBride on 9/20/2009 08:49:00 AM
Sunday, September 20, 2009
From Carolyn Said at the San Francisco Chronicle: $30 billion home loan time bomb set for 2010
From 2004 to 2008, "one in five people who took out a mortgage loan (for both purchases and refinancing) in the San Francisco metropolitan region ... got an option ARM," said Bob Visini, senior director of marketing in San Francisco at First American CoreLogic, a mortgage research firm. "That's more than twice the national average.The article has much more.
"People think option ARMs (will be) a national crisis," he said. "That's not really true. It's just in higher-cost areas like California where you see their prevalence."
First American shows more than 54,000 option ARMs issued here with a value of about $30.9 billion. Fitch shows more than 47,000 option ARMs here with a value of about $28 billion. Both say their data underestimate the totals.
Fitch said 94 percent of borrowers elected to make minimum payments only.
Unlike subprime loans, which were more commonly used for entry-level homes, option ARMs started out with high balances. In the five-county San Francisco area, option ARMs average about $584,000 and were used to buy homes averaging $823,000, according to an analysis of First American data.
That means they'll spawn foreclosures among upper-end homes.
"The average option ARM borrower is significantly underwater, so much that they don't think they'll get out," Sirotic said. On average nationwide, option ARM borrowers ... owe is 126 percent of their home's value, based on depreciation and not including the effects of negative amortization, Sirotic said.
Option ARMs were used as affordability products in mid-to-high priced areas of bubble states like California. Now most of the borrowers are significantly underwater, and this will lead to more foreclosures, and falling prices, in the mid-to-high end areas.
Posted by Bill McBride on 9/20/2009 08:49:00 AM