Thursday, August 20, 2009

U.S. Mortgage Market and Seriously Delinquent Loans by Type

by Bill McBride on 8/20/2009 04:12:00 PM

A little more information from the MBA Q2 delinquency report (and market graph below):

U.S. Mortgage Market by Type Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the U.S. mortgage market by type. There are about 45 million loans included in the MBA survey, and that is about 85% of the U.S. market.

This is a general breakdown, and apparently Alt-A is included in Prime (it would be helpful to break that out).

Seriously Delinquent and In Foreclosure by TypeThe second graph shows the breakdown by type for loans that are either seriously delinquent (90+ days delinquent) or in the foreclosure process. There are about 3.6 million loans in this category.

Clearly subprime is disproportionately represented (much higher delinquency rate), but now over half the loans in this category are Prime - and the delinquency rate is growing faster for Prime. This is now a Prime foreclosure crisis.

For more, please see earlier posts:
MBA Forecasts Foreclosures to Peak at End of 2010 (several graphs)
MBA: Record 13.2 Percent of Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure or Delinquent in Q2

Stock Market Crashes Instead of comparing the markets from the peak (See: the Four Bad Bears), Doug Short matched up the market bottoms for four crashes (with an interim bottom for the Great Depression).

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.